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Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success

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Most economists would agree that a thriving economy is synonymous with GDP growth. The more we produce and consume, the higher our living standard and the more resources available to the public. This means that our current era, in which growth has slowed substantially from its postwar highs, has raised alarm bells. But should it? Is growth actually the best way to measure economic success—and does our slowdown indicate economic problems?

The counterintuitive answer Dietrich Vollrath offers is: No. Looking at the same facts as other economists, he offers a radically different interpretation. Rather than a sign of economic failure, he argues, our current slowdown is, in fact, a sign of our widespread economic success. Our powerful economy has already supplied so much of the necessary stuff of modern life, brought us so much comfort, security, and luxury, that we have turned to new forms of production and consumption that increase our well-being but do not contribute to growth in GDP.

In Fully Grown, Vollrath offers a powerful case to support that argument. He explores a number of important trends in the US economy: including a decrease in the number of workers relative to the population, a shift from a goods-driven economy to a services-driven one, and a decline in geographic mobility. In each case, he shows how their economic effects could be read as a sign of success, even though they each act as a brake of GDP growth. He also reveals what growth measurement can and cannot tell us—which factors are rightly correlated with economic success, which tell us nothing about significant changes in the economy, and which fall into a conspicuously gray area.

Sure to be controversial, Fully Grown will reset the terms of economic debate and help us think anew about what a successful economy looks like.

Author: Vollrath Dietrich
Publisher: CHICAGO UNIVERSITY PRESS
Pages: 296
ISBN: 9780226666006
Cover: Hardback
Edition Number: 1
Release Year: 2020

Preface

1 Victims of Our Own Success

2 What Is the Growth Slowdown?

3 The Inputs to Economic Growth

4 What Accounts for the Growth Slowdown?

5 The Effect of an Aging Population

6 The Difference between Productivity and Technology

7 The Reallocation from Goods to Services

8 Baumol’s Cost Disease

9 Market Power and Productivity

10 Market Power and the Decline in Investment

11 The Necessity of Market Power

12 Reallocations across Firms and Jobs

13 The Drop in Geographic Mobility

14 Did the Government Cause the Slowdown?

15 Did Inequality Cause the Slowdown?

16 Did China Cause the Slowdown?

17 The Future of Growth

Appendix: Data and Methods

References

Index

Dietrich Vollrath is professor of economics at the University of Houston. He is coauthor of Introduction to Economic Growth, now in its third edition, and writes the Growth Economics Blog.

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