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Crypto Asset Investing in the Age of Autonomy

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Competition, the drive for efficiency, and continuous improvement ultimately push businesses toward automation and later towards autonomy. If a business can operate without human intervention, it will minimize its operational cost. If Uber can remove the expense of a driver with an autonomous vehicle, it will provide its service cheaper than a competitor who can’t. If an artificially intelligent trading company can search, find, and take advantage of some arbitrage opportunity, then it can profit where its competitors cannot. A business that can analyze and execute in real-time without needing to wait for a human to act, is a business that will be able to take advantage of brief inefficiencies from other markets or businesses.

This trend following a thesis that is based on 100 years of proven economic theory. Short-wave economic cycles, those 5- to 10-year cycles, are driven by credit but the long-wave economic cycles, those 50- to 60-year cycles, are driven by technological revolution. We’ve had 5 cycles over the past 200 years with the last wave, the Age of Information & Telecommunications.

We've seen evidence that a new cycle has begun. Technological revolutions come by way of a cluster of new innovations. About a decade ago, you started to see AI, robotics and IoT (sensors) delivering on automation. That’s been powerful, but not transformational. It does not force businesses to fundamentally change how they do business. The last piece of the puzzle was cryptocurrency because it allows us to process and transfer economic value without human intervention. Soon, there will be a global race to build autonomous operations. Businesses and organizations without autonomous operations simply will not be able to compete with those that do because … autonomy is the ultimate competitive advantage.

Crypto is the mechanism that will accrue value from being the infrastructure for the next digital financial revolution. Crypto Asset Investing lays out a case that we’ve begun a new technological revolution similar to the Internet Age of the 1990’s. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, robotics and cryptocurrency are converging to deliver on a new age, what I call the Age of Autonomy. Understanding the transformation that’s taken place before anyone else can yield enormous investment opportunity. In this book, you’ll learn how and why to invest in crypto assets.

Συγγραφέας: Ryan Jake
Εκδότης: WILEY
Σελίδες: 304
ISBN: 9781119705369
Εξώφυλλο: Σκληρό Εξώφυλλο
Αριθμός Έκδοσης: 1
Έτος έκδοσης: 2021

Acknowledgments

Author’s Note

Comp: Please update folios

Introduction – Why This Book and Now

We Are Marching Toward Two Worlds

Where We Are in the Current Economic Cycle

Investing in the New Technological Revolution

The Push Toward Autonomy

Innovations That Make the Age of Autonomy Possible

The Age of Autonomy – Welcome to the Future

The Ideal Investment Profile

Investing in Crypto Assets in the Age of Autonomy

Putting It All Together

Part I: The History of Economic Cycles and Monetary Policy

Chapter 1: The Fed and You, A Brief History

How It Was versus How It Is

Monetary Policy – The History of the Federal Reserve

The US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

Sovereign Currencies Are Now All Fiat Currency

Chapter 2: Understanding Economic Cycles

Terms and Definitions

The Economic Cycle

Deleveraging – Understanding a Debt Crisis

Where Are We in the Long-term Debt Cycle?

What’s Outside the Economic Cycle Definition

Current Cycle Comparison to Past Cycles

Chapter 3: The Long-wave Economic Cycle

The Kondratieff Cycle

Spring – The Start of Inflation

Summer – Runaway Inflation

Autumn – Disinflation

Winter – Deflation

Technological Revolutions – Building on the Long-wave Cycle

The Past Long-wave Cycle – The Age of the Internet

Moving in Cycles

Chapter 4: Safe Is the New Risky

The Problem – Historical Truth, Contemporary Fallacy

US Treasuries Are a “Risk-free” Asset

Owning a Stock Was Always Owning an Asset

There Is No Counterparty Risk to Owning Gold

Savings Accounts Are Safe

The News Is News

Okay, Boomer

Conclusion

Chapter 5: Credit and Commodity Currencies

The Purpose of Money

Commodity Money (Sound Money)

Periods of Sound Money Policy

Bi-metal Periods

Credit Money (Unsound Money)

Problems with Credit Money

Periods of Unsound Money Policy

Chapter 6: The Fall of Credit Money and the Rise of Multicurrencies

The Fall of Credit-based Currencies

The Ever-increasing Size of Bubbles

The Federal Reserve’s Modern Policies and Positions

Unintended Consequences

Modern Global Monetary Policy – Money Printer Goes Brrrrr

The Decline of the US Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency

The End of a Sovereign Debt Cycle

The Future – A Multicurrency World

Part II: The Rise of Blockchain and the Age of Autonomy

Chapter 7: A Digital Commodity: Bitcoin as Digital Gold

A Primer on Bitcoin

What’s Unique About Bitcoin

Triple-Entry Accounting

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Global Monetary Policy

Bitcoin as Sound Money

The Bitcoin Halvening Event

Scarcity Value and the Stock-to-Flow Model

Other Ways to Value Bitcoin

Chapter 8: Blockchains

Blockchains: The Basics

Blockchain Properties

Primitives of Blockchain

Vulnerabilities

Use Cases

Conclusion

Chapter 9: The Age of Autonomy

Long-wave Economic Cycles – 100 Years of Economic Theory

Blockchain –  The Last Piece of the Puzzle

A Brief History

The Age of Autonomy: What’s Possible

An Example of the Future Decentralized Autonomous Corporation

The Knowledge Doubling Curve

The Case Against a Continuation of the Old Technological Revolution

Conclusion

Chapter 10: Clusters of Innovation in the Age of Autonomy

Parallels to the Internet Technological Revolution

Blockchain Infrastructure for the Age of Autonomy

The State of Artificial Intelligence

The Intersection of Blockchain and AI

The Intersection of Robotics, AI, and IoT/Sensor Data Technologies

Ephemeralization

Chapter 11: The Case for Investing in Crypto Assets

Old Fiat Money Regimes Are Dying

Possession Is 9/10ths of the Law

Old Investment Strategies Are Becoming Antiquated

Risk Management Favors Antifragility and Ephemeralization

Seizure-Resistant Assets Have a Premium

Blockchain Immutability Solves Information Integrity

The Gold versus Bitcoin Argument

A Set of New Innovations Is Affecting Everyone

Revolution in the Means of Production

Invest in Scarcity

Public Financial Infrastructure

Innovation Creates Asymmetry

Crypto Assets: A New Asset Class

Part III: Crypto Investment Strategies

Chapter 12: A Primer on Crypto Asset Investing

What Are Crypto Assets?

Crypto Classification: Security versus Commodity

Passive Investing and the Crypto Index Fallacy

Value Accrual – Value Creation and Value Capture

Investing from First Principles

Investment Vehicle Options for Crypto Investing

Chapter 13: Quantitative Analysis Frameworks

Fundamental Valuation Using On-chain Metrics

Global Macro Risk Management Models

A Model for Fundamental Analysis

Interpretations of the Model

Summary of Other Valuation Models

Token Models and Tokenomics

Token Mechanics

Conclusion on Models and Frameworks

Chapter 14: Understanding Crypto Asset Classes

Reserve Crypto Assets

Cryptocurrencies

Platform Crypto Assets

Utility Tokens

Governance Tokens

Security Tokens

Asset-backed Tokens

Crypto-Commodities

Appcoins/DApps (Decentralized Apps)

Nonfungible Tokens (NFTs)

Stablecoins

Other Approaches

Conclusion

JAKE RYAN is the Chief Investment Officer at Tradecraft Capital, a crypto asset hedge fund. He holds a degree in computer science with a specialty in artificial intelligence from the University of Texas at Austin, and has his early work cited with over 700 Google Scholar citations. He went on to become a software entrepreneur and investor in traditional markets, building a multi-million-dollar software services firm and continuing as a successful angel investor before focusing on the crypto asset investment.

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