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Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

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Named one of "The five best books to understand AI" by The Economist

The impact AI will have is profound, but the economic framework for understanding it is surprisingly simple.

Artificial intelligence seems to do the impossible, magically bringing machines to life--driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI brings can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design policies, and people plan their lives for a world so different from what we know? In the face of such uncertainty, many either cower in fear or predict an impossibly sunny future.

But in Prediction Machines, three eminent economists recast the rise of AI as a drop in the cost of prediction. With this masterful stroke, they lift the curtain on the AI-is-magic hype and provide economic clarity about the AI revolution as well as a basis for action by executives, policy makers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

In this new, updated edition, the authors illustrate how, when AI is framed as cheap prediction, its extraordinary potential becomes clear:

  • Prediction is at the heart of making decisions amid uncertainty. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with such decisions.
  • Prediction tools increase productivity--operating machines, handling documents, communicating with customers.
  • Uncertainty constrains strategy. Better prediction creates opportunities for new business strategies to compete.

 

The authors reset the context, describing the striking impact the book has had and how its argument and its implications are playing out in the real world. And in new material, they explain how prediction fits into decision-making processes and how foundational technologies such as quantum computing will impact business choices.

Penetrating, insightful, and practical, Prediction Machines will help you navigate the changes on the horizon.

Authors: Gans Joshua, Agrawal Ajay, Goldfarb Avi
Publisher: HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW
Pages: 304
ISBN: 9781647824679
Cover: Hardback
Edition Number: 1
Release Year: 2022

Joshua Gans is Professor of Strategic Management and holds the Jeffrey S. Skoll Chair of Technical Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. He is the author of The Disruption Dilemma (MIT Press), Prediction Machines, and other books.

Andrew Leigh is a Member of the Australian House of Representatives, a former economics professor, and author of Battlers and Billionaires, Randomistas and other books.

Ajay Agrawal is the Geoffrey Taber Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation and Professor of Strategic Management at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. In addition, he is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, MA and Faculty Affiliate at the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence in Toronto, Canada.

Professor Agrawal is founder of the Creative Destruction Lab (CDL), a not-for-profit program for early-stage, science-based companies. CDL’s mission is to enhance the commercialization of science for the betterment of humankind. CDL operates sites at five Canadian universities as well as at the University of Oxford, HEC Paris, Georgia Tech, University of Wisconsin-Madison, The University of Washington, ESMT Berlin, and The University of Tartu in Estonia.

Avi Goldfarb is the Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare and Professor of Marketing at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. Avi is also Chief Data Scientist at the Creative Destruction Lab, Senior Editor at Marketing Science, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Avi’s research focuses on the opportunities and challenges of the digital economy. This work has been discussed in White House reports, Congressional testimony, European Commission documents, the Economist, the Globe and Mail, National Public Radio, the Atlantic, the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere. He holds a PhD in economics of Northwestern University.

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